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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd